The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

(3BL Media / theCSRfeed) - December 22, 2011 - The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. increased 0.5 percent in November to 118.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.   Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “November’s increase in the LEI for the U.S. was widespread among the leading indicators and continues to suggest that the risk of an economic downturn in the near term has receded. Interest rate spread and housing permits made the largest contributions to the LEI this month, overcoming a falling average workweek in manufacturing, which reversed its October gain. The CEI also rose on improving employment and personal income although industrial production fell in November.”   Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining momentum by spring. For the second month in a row, building permits made a relatively strong contribution and there is a chance that the long decline in housing is finally slowing. However, this somewhat positive outlook for the domestic economy is at odds with a global economy that appears to be losing steam. In particular, a deeper-than-expected recession in Europe could easily derail the outlook for the U.S. economy.”   The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in November to 103.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October and a 0.1 percent increase in September.   The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.1 percent in November to 110.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.   About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.S. The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.   The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:   Average weekly hours, manufacturing Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods Building permits, new private housing units Stock prices, 500 common stocks Money supply, M2 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds Index of consumer expectations   For full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For more economic data from The Conference Board, visit https://www.conference-board.org/data/
To read the press release, visit https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=4341   TCB19796